Early Technology Predictions - Tesla

 

 

There have been many predictions that have eventually materialized. The source of the predictions varies. Several predictions have emanated from literature, such as Jules Verne’s submarine and various Star Trek and Star Wars technologies. Other sources of predictions are the giants in the field of science. One of those giants, Nikola Tesla, made multiple predictions. Most of those have materialized in one form or another. The predictions range from a government body regulating the environment to wireless communications. This latter prediction is discussed here. 

Wireless communications are pervasive in the 21st century. However, there were already widespread wireless communications in the 20^th century. Two-way radios became popular devices as early as the 1960s. Fueled by military use during the world wars, a generation of radio operators evolved. Ham radio, commonly referred to as amateur radio, was already commonly broadcasting long distances long before cell phones. Ham radio operators could communicate worldwide with the right equipment and good antennas (“Ham radio range: A guide to how far you can talk,” n.d.). Citizen band (CB) radios became popular in the 1970s as cheaper and easier wireless entry points. The communication distance is much shorter, only four miles maximum, and the regulatory and cost barriers to entry were much less than with Ham radio. 

The first cordless phone patent was granted in 1977 to George Sweigert (Simpson, 2023). The device enabled wireless connection to a base unit in the home, opening up limited wireless communication, which grew substantially in the 1980s. At about the same time, Martin Cooper, a former military radio operator, was leading a team at Motorola that developed the first cell phone (Gregersen, 2023). After various revisions, Motorola released the DynaTAC 8000x for consumer use in 1983. The device was costly at roughly $4,000. 

The industry continued to thrive, and the first generation smartphone, developed by IBM, was released in 1993 (Hosch, 2023). The market tried various implementations, including public digital assistants (PDAs) with physical (QWERTY) keyboards. The most popular PDAs were the Blackberry line of phones introduced at the end of the last century. 

Conclusion

The rest is recent history. Smartphones have accelerated to modern versions and use. It is difficult to imagine anyone that anyone does not use a cell phone today. A new generation already relies on cell phones as a replacement for home phone service. As functionality and quality of service increase and older generations attrit, the trend will likely grow, and home telephones will also become relegated to history. Tesla’s words in 1926 were:

"When the wireless transmission of power is made commercial, transport and transmission will be revolutionized. Already motion pictures have been transmitted by wireless over a short distance. Later the distance will be illimitable.." — Tesla, 1926

From radio to satellite communications, this prediction has materialized. Driven by convenience and advances in semiconductor technology, the industry has burgeoned into what it is today. Consumer demand continues to fuel advancements, and the future for wireless devices looks bright.

References

Gregersen, E. (2023, February 28). Martin Cooper. Encyclopedia Britannica. https://www.britannica.com/biography/Martin-Cooper

Ham radio range: A guide to how far you can talk. (n.d.). Ham Radio Prep. https://hamradioprep.com/ham-radio-range/

Hosch, W. L. (2023, September 26). Smartphone. Encyclopedia Britannica. https://www.britannica.com/technology/smartphone

Simpson, L. (Ed.). (2023, April 17). History of the telephone: Who made the first cordless phones? Kidadl.  https://kidadl.com/facts/history-of-the-telephone-who-made-the-first-cordless-phones