Techniques for Think Tanks

 

 

Think tanks generally fall into two categories. One-roof is a model where members come together in a single location and discuss ideas in person. The other model is without a roof. This second approach allows for virtual sessions, which coincidentally have become more common post-COVID.

There are different approaches used in think tanks, as well. For example, rapid prototyping is a method for quickly creating scale models and iteratively improving the prototypes to realize something greater (Penttila, 2017; Silentstrike, 2016). However, before an idea can be prototyped, there needs to be an idea. Formalizing a program for chasing ideas is another approach where funds are provided to groups to explore ideas with the hope and intent that viable ideas will bubble to the surface. The Delphi method is a structured technique powered by a consensus of experts.

Think Backwards

Another think tank technique is to think backward (Penttila, 2017). In this approach, a future product is imagined. The think tank participants plan backward from the idea of the finished product, systematically unraveling a viable starting point.

Delphi Method

The Delphi method is a more structured approach that relies on experts knowledgeable in a given topic (Khodyakov et al., 2023). This method began with the RAND Corporation in the 1960s. By the end of that decade, there were 12 published articles about the Delphi method. The attention increased, and in the 1980s, 252 articles were written about the Delphi model. This approach continued gaining popularity, as evidenced by a surge to 2,200 articles in the 2000s and more than 9,800 articles in the 2010s. In the 2020s, articles about the Delphi method are on pace to double by the end of the decade, likely reaching 19,000 published articles.

The characteristics of the Delphi method are iteration, group discussion, anonymous written responses (to questionnaires), and consensus building. The original idea was for a group of experts to participate face-to-face. Participation has become increasingly virtual. Like many virtual meetings, there are positives and negatives to that trend.

The iterative characteristic of the Delphi method manifests as multiple rounds. A minimum of two rounds is required (Pickard, 2017). Given the expressed intent to build consensus, a practical implementation would include as many rounds as necessary (Khodyakov et al., 2023). This consensus is deemed to be more reliable and is considered evidence by virtue of emanating from experts. The process also minimizes dubious outcomes that might be attributed to dominant personalities since all responses are anonymous and written.

Despite the popularity of the Delphi method, it has its criticisms. One drawback is that the technique requires continued commitment from participants (Pickard, 2017). If conducted in person, that could include multiple trips, exacerbating the time demand because of travel. There are also the associated costs. However, virtual meetings can address these shortcomings, reducing time demands, costs, and inconvenience. There are other weaknesses of the method when applied to general research, but the Delphi method is a solid approach for think tanks.

 

References

Khodyakov, D., Grant, S., Kroger, J., Gadwah-Meaden, C., Motala, A., & Larkin, J. (2023). Disciplinary trends in the use of the Delphi method: A bibliometric analysis. PLOS ONE 18(8). https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0289009

Penttila, C. (2007, March 1). 5 Big Biz Think Tank Techniques. Entrepreneur. https://www.entrepreneur.com/growing-a-business/5-business-think-tank-techniques/174688

Pickard, A. J. (2017). Research methods in information. Facet Publishing. https://doi.org/10.29085/9781783300235

Silentstrike. (2016, January 27). Think tank methodologies and techniques. WordPress. https://strikecyberscoop.wordpress.com/2016/01/27/think-tank-methodologies-and-techniques/