Pontificating the Future of Navels

    There have been many predictions that have eventually materialized. The source of the predictions varies. Several predictions have emanated from literature, such as Jules Verne’s submarine and various Star Trek and Star Wars technologies. Other sources of predictions are the giants in the field of science. One of those giants, Nikola Tesla, made multiple predictions. Most of those have materialized in one form or another. The predictions range from a government body regulating the environment to wireless communications. This latter prediction is discussed here.  Wireless communications are pervasive in the 21st century. However, there were already widespread wireless communications in the 20 th century. Two-way radios became popular devices as early as the 1960s. Fueled by military use during the world wars, a generation of radio operators evolved. Ham radio, commonly referred to as amateur radio, was already commonly broadcasting long distances long be...

  Forecasting is an activity to predict probable future outcomes (Koehler, 2007). Businesses forecast regularly. Shareholders and investors expect publicly traded businesses to provide forecasts quarterly. Those forecasts generally cover short-term projections for coming quarters through a fiscal year and possibly into the following fiscal year. Corporate executives also include longer-term projections that are characterized strategically rather than providing hard estimates (called guidance). Forecasting is critical for managing a healthy business and attracting investment.  Forecasts are not limited to business. Any probability statement about future trends would be a forecast. The idea that forecasts are predictions means that the focus is on future events. The uncertainty of the unknown future introduces the concept of probability. Scenario planning provides the mechanism to address various uncertainties (Koehler, 2007; Tidd & Bessant, 2020), and differe...

    A simple Internet search yields dozens of accidental inventions noted as trivia, from plastic to the Slinky. I focus below on two inventions that have legends of accidents but also support scientific research. These are penicillin and the microwave oven. Penicillin Scientists have studied antibiotics for over a century, with early work done in antibiosis using soil bacteria circa 1900 (Hutchings et al., 2019). Salvarsan research had already been conducted for nearly 20 years by the time British scientist Alexander Fleming coincidentally discovered penicillin in 1928 (Gaines, 2017; Haider, 2023; Hutchings et al., 2019). Few inventions in history can claim to have had a more significant impact on human life, especially in a positive sense. The happy accident in the case of penicillin occurred after a vacation. The inventor was a professor and biology researcher at a London university. Having returned from vacation, Fleming noticed that a petri dish had not been ...

Different techniques are used to make decisions apart from authoritative (single-person) decisions, generally referred to as group decisions. In this post, the Delphi method from a previous post is discussed again, emphasizing decision-making by consensus. This approach is compared and contrasted with decisions by majority vote, another common decision-making approach. Before comparing these two methods, it is worthwhile to consider a few risks that accompany making group decisions (MasterClass, 2022). The first is that groups typically take more time to make decisions. An authoritative decision can quickly be made once data for making the decision is available. In contrast, groups take time to organize. Invitations and scheduling are initial organization time drains. The group must also consume time reviewing and understanding the decision-making process chosen. Depending on the process, multiple group sessions may also be needed. A second issue with group decisions is ...

    Think tanks generally fall into two categories. One-roof is a model where members come together in a single location and discuss ideas in person. The other model is without a roof. This second approach allows for virtual sessions, which coincidentally have become more common post-COVID. There are different approaches used in think tanks, as well. For example, rapid prototyping is a method for quickly creating scale models and iteratively improving the prototypes to realize something greater (Penttila, 2017; Silentstrike, 2016). However, before an idea can be prototyped, there needs to be an idea. Formalizing a program for chasing ideas is another approach where funds are provided to groups to explore ideas with the hope and intent that viable ideas will bubble to the surface. The Delphi method is a structured technique powered by a consensus of experts. Think Backwards Another think tank techniq...